TJR Picks: NFL Week 8

WE'RE IN THE KNOW, SO YOU'RE IN THE KNOW

Better late than never right?  So we took a bunch of weeks off, but after such a good run last year we figured we deserved it.  Here’s a few picks we like for this week.

Seattle (+9.5) at DALLAS: The Cowboys are the better team no matter how you analyze the numbers, but big home favorites are just 60-142-3 against the spread (ATS).  The Seahawks defense gets a little healthier and keeps it close in Jerry World.

St. Louis (+4) at DETROIT: Both of these teams are baaad, and history shows that when two bad teams play it’s best to take the road team (especially in a non-division game 68-36-2 ATS), which in this case is the Rams.

CHICAGO (-13) vs. Cleveland: All the math points to the Browns covering, including a 76-21 ATS record for road underdog bounce-back situations like this one. But the bottom line is this: we just don’t believe in the Browns.  So give the points in this one.

INDIANAPOLIS (-11.5) vs. San Francisco: The Niners offense is a big question mark with Alex Smith at the helm.  He was good in 1 half against the Texans, but that’s not enough evidence to assume it will continue.  The Niners defense has been average to this point while the Colts defense has played really well.  We’ll take Peyton Manning and give the points.

Green Bay (-3.5) vs. Minnesota: The first matchup in Minnesota should have gone Green Bay’s way, but the Vikings pulled out the win at home.  The Green Bay defense is much better than people realize, and we’ll take Aaron Rodgers throwing to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver over the Vikings secondary all day.

Miami (+3.5) at NY Jets: Miami won the first matchup at home.  This one is sure to be close given that it’s an inter-division game and with the Jets missing DT Kris Jenkins, the bet here is that the Dolphins continue to run over the Jets.  Take the points.

Those  are the games we like this week.  And as we always say, bet with your head and not over it.